November 4, 2003

As Earth Warms, the Hottest Issue Is Energy

By KENNETH CHANG

Suppose that over the next decade or two the forecasts of global warming start to come true. Color has drained from New England's autumns as maple trees die, and the Baltimore oriole can no longer be found south of Buffalo. The Dust Bowl has returned to the Great Plains, and Arctic ice is melting into open water. Upheavals in weather, the environment and life are accelerating around the world.

Then what?

If global warming occurs as predicted, there will be no easy way to turn the Earth's thermostat back down. The best that most scientists would hope for would be to slow and then halt the warming, and that would require a top-to-bottom revamping of the world's energy systems, shifting from fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas to alternatives that in large part do not yet exist.

"We have to face the fact this is an enormous challenge," said Dr. Martin I. Hoffert, a professor of physics at New York University.

But interviews with scientists, environment advocates and industry representatives show that there is no consensus in how to meet that challenge. Some look to the traditional renewable energy sources: solar and wind. Others believe use of fossil fuels will continue, but that the carbon dioxide can be captured and then stored underground. The nuclear power industry hopes concern over global warming may help spur a revival.

In an article in the journal Science last November, Dr. Hoffert and 17 other experts looked at alternatives to fossil fuels and found all to have "severe deficiencies in their ability to stabilize global climate."

The scientists believe that technological fixes are possible. Dr. Hoffert said the country needed to embark on an energy research program on the scale of the Manhattan Project that built the atomic bomb during World War II or the Apollo program that put men on the moon.


NASA artwork by Pat Rawlings/SAIC

A solar power satellite is among the possible alternatives to carbon dioxide-emitting fossil fuels. It could take advantage of the fact that the sun shines 24 hours a day in space.

Getty Images

Wind turbines and solar power, which are renewable energy sources, provide less than 2 percent of the world's electricity.

"Maybe six or seven of them operating simultaneously," he said. "We should be prepared to invest several hundred billion dollars in the next 10 to 15 years."

But to even have a hope of finding a solution, the effort must begin now, the scientists said. A new technology usually takes several decades to develop the underlying science, build pilot projects and then begin commercial deployment.

The authors of the Science paper expect that a smorgasbord of energy sources will be needed, and they call for intensive research on radical ideas like vast solar arrays orbiting Earth that can collect sunlight and beam the energy down. "Many concepts will fail, and staying the course will require leadership," they wrote. "Stabilizing climate is not easy."

The heart of the problem is carbon dioxide, the main byproduct from the burning of fossil fuels. When the atmosphere is rich in carbon dioxide, heat is trapped, producing a greenhouse effect. Most scientists believe the billions of tons of carbon dioxide released since the start of the Industrial Revolution are in part to blame for the one-degree rise in global temperatures over the past century. Carbon dioxide concentrations are now 30 percent higher than preindustrial levels.

With rising living standards in developing nations, emissions of carbon dioxide are increasing, and the pace of warming is expected to speed up, too. Unchecked, carbon dioxide would reach twice preindustrial levels by midcentury and perhaps double again by the end of the century. That could force temperatures up by 3 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, according to computer models.

Because carbon dioxide is colorless, odorless and disperses immediately into the air, few realize how much spills out of tailpipes and smokestacks. An automobile, for example, generates perhaps 50 to 100 tons of carbon dioxide in its lifetime.

The United States produces more carbon dioxide than any other country by far. Each American, on average, generates about 45,000 pounds of carbon dioxide a year. That is about twice as much as the average person living in Japan or Europe and many times more than someone living in a developing country like Zimbabwe, China or Panama. (Even if the United States achieves President Bush's goal of an 18 percent reduction in the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions by 2012, the output of an average American would still far exceed that of almost anyone else in the world.)

Even if all emissions stop, levels of carbon dioxide in the air will remain high for centuries as the Earth gradually absorbs the excess.

Currently, the world's energy use per second is about 12 trillion watts — which would light up 120 billion 100-watt bulbs — and 85 percent of that comes from fossil fuels.

Of the remaining 15 percent, nuclear and hydroelectric power each supply about 6.5 percent. The renewable energy sources often touted as the hope for the future — wind and solar — provide less than 2 percent.

In March, Dr. Hoffert and two colleagues reported in Science that to limit the temperature increase to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, non-carbon-dioxide-emitting sources would have to generate 7 trillion to 25 trillion watts by midcentury, 4 to 14 times as much as current levels. That is roughly equivalent to adding a large emissions-free power plant every day for the next 50 years.

And by the end of the century, they wrote, at least three-quarters and maybe all of the world's energy would have to be emission-free.

No existing technology appears capable of filling that void. The futuristic techology might be impractically expensive. Developing a solar power satellite, for example, has been estimated at more than $200 billion.

Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham cited the Science paper from last November in a speech at the American Academy in Berlin two months ago. Mr. Abraham said that merely setting limits and timetables on carbon dioxide like those in the Kyoto Protocol could not by themselves solve global warming.

"We will also need to develop the revolutionary technologies that make these reductions happen," Mr. Abraham said. "That means creating the kinds of technologies that do not simply refine current energy systems, but actually transform the way we produce and consume energy."

Too Far Away

Some long-hoped-for options will almost certainly not be ready. Fusion — producing energy by combining hydrogen atoms into helium, the process that lights up the sun — has been heralded for decades as a potentially limitless energy source, but scientists still have not shown it can be harnessed practically. Experimental fusion reactors do not yet produce more power than they take to run.

Increased energy efficiency — like better-insulated buildings, more efficient air-conditioners, higher mileage cars — is not a solution by itself, but it could buy more time to develop cleaner energy.

The much-talked-about hydrogen economy, in which gasoline-powered engines are replaced by fuel cells, is also not a solution. It merely shifts the question to what power source is used to produce the hydrogen.

Today, most hydrogen is made from natural gas, a process that produces carbon dioxide that is then released into the air. Hydrogen can also be produced by splitting apart water atoms, but that takes more energy than the hydrogen will produce in the fuel cell. If the electricity to split the water comes from the coal-fired power plant, then a hydrogen car would not cut carbon dioxide emissions.

Exploiting What's Here

A fundamental problem remains: how to produce electricity without carbon dioxide.

Hydroelectric power has reached its limits in most parts of the world; there are no more rivers to dam.

Nuclear power is a proven technology to generate large amounts of electricity, but before it could be expanded, the energy industry would have to overcome longstanding public fears that another accident, like those at Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, will occur. Solutions also need to be found for disposing of radioactive spent fuel and safeguarding it from terrorists.

Marvin Fertel, senior vice president of the Nuclear Energy Institute, an industry group, said warming had become such a worry that some environmental groups were becoming amenable to new nuclear plants. "In private, that's what we get from them," he said.

Researchers at the Electric Power Research Institute in Palo Alto, Calif., espouse a major expansion of nuclear power, coupled with a switch from gasoline to hydrogen to power cars and trucks. Electricity from the nuclear plants would split water to produce hydrogen, and then cables made of superconductors would distribute both electricty and hydrogen, which would double as coolant for the cables, across the country.

"I think in 30 to 50 years there will be systems like this," said Dr. Chauncey Starr, the institute's founder and emeritus president. "I think the advantages of this are sufficient to justify it."

In the short run, fossil fuels will still be widely used, but it is still possible to control carbon dioxide.

In his Berlin speech, Mr. Abraham highlighted two projects the Energy Department was working on: carbon sequestration — the capturing of carbon dioxide before it is emitted and storing it underground — and FutureGen, a $1 billion prototype coal power plant that will produce few emissions. The plant will seek to demonstrate by 2020 how to convert coal to hydrogen on a commercial scale that will then be used to generate electricity in fuel cells or turbines. The waste carbon dioxide would be captured and stored.

The technology for injecting carbon dioxide is straightforward, but scientists need better knowledge on suitable locations and leak prevention.

Sequestration, however, will probably not be cost-effective for current power plants. The filters for capturing carbon dioxide from the exhaust gas will by themselves consume 20 percent to 30 percent of the power plant's electricity.

Renewing Renewables

Solar is still a future promise. The cost of energy from solar cells has dropped sharply in the past few decades. One kilowatt-hour of electricity — the energy to light a 100-watt bulb for 10 hours — used to cost several dollars when produced by solar cells. Now it is only about 35 cents. With fossil fuels, a kilowatt-hour costs just a few cents.

But solar still has much room for improvement. Commercial cells are only 10 to 15 percent efficient. With much more research, new strategies to absorb sunlight more efficiently could lead to cells that reached 50 to 60 percent efficiency. If the cells could be made cheaply enough, they could produce electricity for only 1 or 2 cents a kilowatt-hour.

Dr. Arthur Nozik, a senior research fellow at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., said the advanced solar concepts were scientifically feasible. But, echoing Dr. Hoffert, Dr. Nozik said: "We need like a Manhattan Project or an Apollo program to put a lot more resources into solving the problem. It's going to require a revolution, not an evolution. I wouldn't expect to get there in 2050 if we're going at the same pace."

But if scientists succeed with a cheap, efficient solar cell, "you'd be on Easy Street," Dr. Nozik said.

Wind power is already practical in many places like Denmark, where 17 percent of the electricity comes from wind turbines. The newest turbines, with propellers as wide in diameter as a football field, produce energy at a cost of 4 or 5 cents a kilowatt-hour. Further refinements like lighter rotors could drop the price by another cent or two, making it directly competitive with natural gas.

Dr. Robert W. Thresher, director of the National Wind Technology Center at the energy laboratory, envisions large farms of wind turbines being built offshore. "They would be out of sight," he said. "There's no shortage of space and wind."

Solar and wind power will be hampered because the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. The current power grid is not well suited for intermittent power sources because the amount of power produced at any moment must match the amount being consumed. To exploit the sun and wind, utilities would have to develop devices that could act as giant batteries.

One concept is to pump compressed air into an underground cavern. When electricity was needed, the air would be released, and the air pressure would turn a turbine to generate electricity.

The Big Ideas

Then there are the big ideas that could change everything. To get around the problem of the intermittency in solar power, solar arrays could be placed where the sun shines 24 hours a day — in space. The power could be beamed to the ground via microwaves.

Another big idea comes from Dr. Klaus S. Lackner, a professor of geophysics at Columbia University: what if carbon dioxide could be scrubbed out of the air? His back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate it may be feasible, although he is far from being ready to demonstrate how.

But if that were possible, that would eliminate the need to shift from gasoline to hydrogen for cars. That would save the time and cost of building pipelines for shipping hydrogen, and gasoline is in many ways a superior fuel than hydrogen. (Hydrogen needs to be stored under very high pressure or at very cold temperatures.) Owners of gas-guzzling S.U.V.'s could assuage their guilt by paying for the scrubbing of carbon dioxide produced by their vehicles.

Eventually, the captured carbon dioxide could be processed to create an artificial gasoline, Dr. Lackner said. Then the world would discover, much to its surprise, that everything old would be new and clean again.

"Carbon may actually be just as clean, just as renewable," Dr. Lackner said.


 


November 4, 2003

Deep in the Amazon Forest, Vast Questions About Global Climate Change

By LARRY ROHTER

TAPAJΣS NATIONAL FOREST, Brazil — Viewed from the top of a tower 150 feet over an exuberant canopy of green, the vast Amazon jungle appears to be a neatly functioning organism. Trees in immeasurable numbers stretch away to the horizon here, their leaves open to the sun, eager to feed on the light that streams down from the sky and perforates the stifling tropical heat.

Down on the ground, however, the longstanding debate about the Amazon's role in global climate change is intensifying. The Amazon is the largest tropical forest in the world — bigger than all of Europe, with Brazil's section alone more than half the size of the continental United States. And it has always been assumed to be essential to inhibiting global warming by drawing in carbon dioxide during photosynthesis.

Carbon dioxide is one of the main gases that contribute to global warming and the much-dreaded greenhouse effect. But it has never been established whether the rain forest here is in fact functioning as a giant sink that "sequesters," or traps and absorbs, carbon.

Some scientists have suggested that indiscriminate deforestation has turned the Amazon into a net source of such gases, spewing huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the air.

Scientists have been investigating that question for a decade now, and the answer is sure to have important political and scientific ramifications both for Brazil and the rest of the world.


Reuters
Trees and brush are burned off to convert jungle into farmland in northern Brazil.
Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times
A soybean field near a cemetery occupies what once was a forest in the Brazilian state of Para. The amount of deforested land in Brazil has risen each of the last two years.

If in fact the Amazon is a net source of carbon gas emissions, or if the amounts of gas emitted and sequestered are in a rough permanent equilibrium, some of the fundamental assumptions of the 1998 Kyoto Protocol on climate change may have to be reconsidered. No one knows precisely the amount of greenhouse gases that Brazil is already pumping into the atmosphere. A national inventory of carbon emissions, due to have been announced four years ago, has still not been made public. And although the new left-wing government that took power in Brasνlia early this year was elected with the support of environmentalists, it has given no indication when it intends to publish those figures.

Scientists at the National Institute for Amazon Research in Manaus estimate that carbon emissions in Brazil may have risen by as much as 50 percent since 1990. By their calculations, what is euphemistically called "land use changes" now produce annual emissions of 400 million tons of greenhouse gases, dwarfing the 90 million tons generated annually by fossil fuel use in Brazil and making this country one of the 10 leading emitters of greenhouse gases in the world.

All across the Brazilian Amazon, the jungle is being razed for cattle pasture, crops, logging, highways and human settlements at an increasingly faster rate, contributing to fears that the climate balance here may soon be permanently tipped. Last year alone, the land that was deforested rose by 40 percent over 2001, to nearly 10,000 square miles, an area larger than New Jersey.

Brazilian scientists, in conjunction with American and European colleagues, are engaged in what is known as the "Large-Scale Bio-Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon," or L.B.A. The goal is to resolve uncertainties about carbon emissions. Begun in the mid-1990's, the program gathers data at 15 sites, including two in this national forest about 50 miles south of the confluence of the Tapajσs River and the Amazon.

At each location, a tower 195 feet high measures the jungle's emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases and also collects readings of wind velocity and direction. To get a picture as broad and accurate as possible, some measuring posts have been placed on flat land, some in sloping areas, others in virgin forest and others still in "disturbed forest," where logging has occurred and secondary growth is present.

"Right now we cannot provide a definitive answer to the question of whether the Amazon is source or sink," Dr. Flavio Luizγo, president of the International Scientific Committee of the L.B.A., said in an interview in Manaus. "But in another three or four years, I think we will be able to reach a consensus."

Initial readings published in 1995 were so extraordinarily high, showing up to nine tons of carbon sequestered yearly on each 2.5 acre plot, that scientists began to question both their results and their methodology. For one thing, they could not find the forest itself growing at the rapid rate implied by those figures.

Since then, years of additional measurements point to a more modest but still crucial role for the Amazon in absorbing emissions of carbon dioxide. Even if the forest were storing one ton per 2.5 acres, the estimate now most commonly cited by researchers, it would be trapping nearly 100 million tons of carbon dioxide each year.

"Each locale has its own specificities," said Dr. Antτnio Manzi of the Amazon research institute, who oversees the data-gathering program. "But generally there is a bit of sequestering of carbon" by the forest in its natural state.

If that is true, the jungle's ability to store carbon gas diminishes as deforestation advances and may eventually reach a saturation point as the amount of land razed grows. But researchers stress that the Amazon is important in climate change because the jungle plays an additional role in the global warming debate that is independent of the question of whether it traps and absorbs carbon gases.

"Deforestation itself is a major contributor to global warming," said Dr. Stephan Schwartzman, senior scientist at the Washington-based group Environmental Defense. "Just deforestation in the Amazon and fires, especially in El Niρo years, are themselves perfectly capable of annulling any gains from the Kyoto Protocol as it now stands."

Natural factors may hurt the forest as well, contributing to the problem. The threat posed by the extremely dry conditions that prevail in the Amazon during increasingly frequent El Niρo years is being documented in an experiment conducted by the Amazon Institute for Environmental Research, or IPAM. Extended dry periods can hurt the forest and diminish its capacity to grow and store carbon.

"Even with current rainfall systems, many forests are coming close to the limit where they shed their protective layer and become vulnerable to burning or slowed-down growth and die," said Dr. Dan Nepstad, an American scientist who works both with IPAM and the Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts. "By replacing the forest with pasture, you will clearly exacerbate drought and contribute to lower levels of fixed carbon."

Brazil has not put forth a consistent position on how to handle global warming, although both officials and the popular press criticize the United States as the principal culprit. Brazil is not a signer of the section of the Kyoto Protocol that promises reduced carbon emissions and has also opposed some important aspects of the "clean development mechanism" in the convention.

"As a developing country and in observance of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, Brazil is not obliged to reach targets in the reduction of greenhouse effect gases," the Brazilian Foreign Ministry said in a statement released in response to a request for comment on its position.

But perhaps the aspect of government policy that scientists here and abroad find most puzzling is Brazil's two-pronged position on the issue of so-called carbon credits.

Brazil supports the notion of awarding such payments for replanting in areas where forests have already been razed, but opposes the granting of such credits for "avoided deforestation" and in fact has itself passed up opportunities to take advantage of those credits itself.

The Environmental Ministry is on record favoring such credits, but the Foreign Ministry is officially opposed for reasons that are not fully clear, and it is the Foreign Ministry that ultimately controls Brazilian policy on the issue.

The issue of carbon emissions is a politically charged issue here. Brazil bristles at any suggestion by foreigners that its stewardship over the bulk of the world's largest remaining tropical forest is in any way deficient, and many Brazilians also believe that global efforts to monitor and limit deforestation are merely a smoke screen to bring about the "internationalization" of the Amazon, along the lines of Antarctica.

Some government officials have gone so far as to argue that Brazil produces no emissions whatsoever from deforestation, maintaining that crops planted after deforestation absorb all of the carbon produced. But studies by the National Institute for Amazon Research indicate that only 7 percent of carbon emissions are reabsorbed by planted crops.

"The rest of the tropics is going to run out of forest before the Amazon does," Dr. Philip M. Fearnside, director of the ecology program at the Amazon research institute, predicted. "The last acres, the last big areas of tropical carbon stocks left standing in the world, are here. That is why what happens here in Brazil, what the government eventually decides to do, is more important than ever."

 

 

 


November 4, 2003 New York Times
PERSONAL HEALTH

Ways to Save the Planet and Get Healthy, Too

By JANE E. BRODY

As winter weather approaches and November winds start to bite, you might be tempted to think that global warming is a myth. But you would be very wrong.

The meteorological extremes of recent years — sudden temperature changes, droughts, floods, heat waves — may or may not be a result of an earth that is gradually warming. But it is warming, and human activities that burn fossil fuels are to blame for at least part of the increase, and perhaps most of it.

When coal, oil and gas burn, they release so-called greenhouse gases, which trap the sun's heat in the earth's atmosphere. You may also think that major industries are the primary culprits and that consequently there is little that you can do to alleviate the problem. Again, you would be wrong.

A handy book by an environmental policy specialist offers 51 easy ways, many of them money saving, that all of us can adopt to minimize the release of greenhouse gases.

Most changes can be made with little compromise to the quality of modern life. In fact, they can often improve living conditions and some, like relying more on human energy and less on gas-powered motor vehicles, can improve health as well.

The book, aptly titled "You Can Prevent Global Warming (and Save Money!)," was written by Dr. Jeffrey Langholz, at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California, and Kelly Turner, an environmental writer. It was published this year (Andrews McMeel Publishing of Kansas City, Mo., $10.95).

Cutting Back Painlessly

Of the 11 greenhouse gases, one, carbon dioxide, the primary gas formed when organic matter burns, accounts for more than half the world's global warming problem. For example, a typical passenger car emits 12,000 pounds of it a year and a coal-burning power plant releases about 3 billion pounds. A second greenhouse gas, methane, is rarer but 23 times as potent in terms of global warming.

HOME ENERGY The way you light, heat and cool your home, how you prepare and store your food and even the way you use water can have a major effect on energy savings. Switching from incandescent light bulbs to long-lasting compact fluorescent bulbs, using dimmer switches and motion sensors and turning off lights when you leave a room can greatly reduce your electrical usage and costs.

Do not overchill. Keep your refrigerator at 37 to 40 degrees and the freezer at zero to 5 degrees. Turning up the temperature of every refrigerator in America by one degree would keep three million tons of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere each year. Discard that old spare inefficient refrigerator and save $150 a year.

Show the same restraint with air-conditioning when summer returns: one degree warmer and 5.5 million tons of CO2 would be kept from the atmosphere. Rely more on cooling techniques that guzzle less energy like ceiling or window fans, evaporative coolers and dehumidifiers.

Close drapes, blinds or shutters on sunny windows or install awnings or solar window screens. Ventilate and better insulate the attic and plug air leaks around windows and doors. These steps will also reduce the wasted heat in cool months.

Insulate the floors above unheated basements and crawl spaces. With a greater initial investment, you can also save on cooling and heating and reduce greenhouse gases by replacing old windows, furnaces and air-conditioners. The best windows, those with low-emissivity (low-E) coatings, which restrict heat transfer, insulate five times as well as single-paned windows, Dr. Langholz and Ms. Turner report.

Landscaping, too, can help you save on energy costs. A windbreak of evergreens on the north side of a house can cut heating bills by a third. And you can cut air-conditioning costs in half by plantings (bushes, high-canopy trees, vines on trellises) and wooden screens that shade the roof and sunniest walls of the house and the air-conditioners.

Trees, as the authors point out, are "nature's air-conditioners." In addition to providing shade, they actually cool the surrounding air by about nine degrees when their water evaporates.

Of course, you do not want to defeat the purpose by plantings that use more energy than they save. Grass, for example, needs more water and maintenance than anything else you might plant. It also has to be mowed, and mowing usually requires gasoline. A rechargeable electric mower or, better yet, an old-fashioned push mower that uses your energy is far better.

Consider your climate: temperate-zone plantings in the desert are both extremely wasteful and costly to the environment. To keep from wasting water, sprinklers should be fitted with automatic rain sensors and directed only at plants, not sidewalks and driveways.

ENERGY-WISE TRAVEL Americans who can afford it tend to be highly independent and self-indulgent. Note the number of gas-guzzling S.U.V.'s on the road today, and the number of cars during rush hour that carry only the driver.

Cars account for 21 percent of the world's global warming emissions. Avoid rapid accelerations and idling, keep tires properly inflated and slow down — the faster you drive above 55 miles an hour, the more gas is used per mile. When you are ready for a new car, consider an energy-saving gas-electric hybrid, and check the fuel efficiency before you buy.

Take public transportation or use a carpool whenever possible. Also consider telecommuting one day a week or more. Combine errands to reduce the number of trips and, whenever possible, shop, bank and pay bills online.

Better yet, use your own power: your feet, a bicycle or person-powered scooter for trips of a mile or so. This can eliminate about one-fourth of all automotive trips.

LOW-ENERGY DIET You can save the earth and people on it and improve your health by changing how you eat and dispose of waste. Beef cattle are the leading producers of methane (after termites), followed by sheep and pigs. Better for your health, and the earth's, is to eat more chicken and fish. Still better, eat fewer animal foods and more plant foods, especially those organically grown, a process that means fewer energy-consuming pesticides are used.

Dr. Langholz and Ms. Turner note that "the average meal travels 1,200 miles by truck, ship and/or plane to reach your dining room table." To reduce the energy costs of carrying foods, eat more locally grown products. Shop at farmers' markets. If possible, plant your own organic vegetable garden.

Recycling More

Finally, learn all you can about recycling and reusing materials. Compost all vegetable waste, including lawn trimmings and leaves, and use the resulting soil for planting. Reuse shopping bags and your own cloth bags for groceries.

PACKAGING Buy products with the least packing and nonperishable items in bulk to save on packaging. And stop junk mail. The Direct Marketing Association's Web site can help you get off mass mailing lists for five years, for $5. It is http://www.thedma.org/cgi/offmailinglist .


11-7-03 Tucson Citizen

New dino extinction theory raises cloud of controversy



The killer asteroid that may have doomed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago is still making a lot of noise, at least among scientists.

The reason: renewed debate about evidence that widespread volcanic activity helped bring down the curtain on the age of dinosaurs through long-term climate change. This theory holds that any asteroid impacts were a secondary occurrence.

The question matters to more than just scientists. The demise of the dinosaur draws special interest because of the public's fascination with the vanished giant creatures. Meanwhile, the world looks for lessons from the past about the effects of global climate change or asteroids striking Earth.

The normally polite academic debates over such matters have turned as messy as a prehistoric bog. In a yearlong verbal brawl, now featured in an online debate sponsored by the Geological Society of London, Princeton researcher Gerta Keller has charged another scientist with sabotaging her efforts to prove the overriding importance of volcanoes in the demise of dinosaurs.

Clues from a crater

Mass extinction events appear in the fossil record repeatedly. At least five such widespread kill-offs of entire species have occurred over the last 550 million years.

The current dispute revolves around core samples from the Gulf of Mexico's Chicxulub (CHICK zuloob) crater, off the Yucatan Peninsula. A comet or asteroid impact there 65 million years ago is widely thought to have triggered tidal waves and a brief ice age that killed off about 50 percent of all species. Scientists call this point in time between the age of the dinosaurs and the current age of mammals the "K-T boundary."

It was only last year, after a decade of wrangling, that a core sample from the crater became available to scientists. In April 2002, the 3-inch-wide drilling core was given to micropaleontologist Jan Smit of Holland's Vrije Universiteit, an expert on microscopic fossils left by tiny sea creatures over hundreds of millions of years. Smit was to divvy up slices of the sample to about two dozen researchers.

Keller suggests that Smit, a supporter of the impact-extinction theory, purposely delayed getting core samples to other scientists. To present analyses at the American Geophysical Union meeting in France in April, researchers needed to send in findings by mid-January.

But Smit didn't deliver the core samples until November, leaving little time for analysis by other researchers. Keller says Smit would have been alone at the podium, presenting his results ahead of everyone else with no one to challenge him.

The Sept. 7 Nature magazine report that first aired her charges included complaints from two other researchers about the samples they received. Smit says no one complained about the delivery schedule when he first proposed it.

Keller says she hustled to do her analysis. Contradicting Smit's results, she reported that Chicxulub couldn't be the K-T boundary because microfossils from the site show now-extinct sea creatures lived for 300,000 years after the crater's formation.

Volcanoes are the true cause of the mass extinction, she suggests. As the Indian subcontinent headed for its collision with Asia 55 million years ago, the crunch that created the Himalayas, an era of intense volcanic activity occurred in the region, causing worldwide climate change leading to mass extinction. The Chicxulub impact, followed by another asteroid strike several hundred thousand years later, simply added to the mass extinction woes of the times, she says. "It's a more complex story than we've been told."

Smit calls the sabotage suggestion "ridiculous." In an e-mail to USA TODAY, he said, "I was the organizer and convener of the (meeting) symposium about the crater drilling, and I would be really stupid to delay her findings, if I were to have a successful symposium!"

The post-impact microfossil layer that Keller describes is simply the remnants of mud thrown up by the tidal waves after the strike, he says.

Each team's analysis will be published in coming months.

K-T boundary issues gained steam in 1980 when Nobel-prize-winning University of California physicist Luis Alvarez and colleagues first proposed in a Science magazine report that an asteroid impact led to a fallout cloud blanketing the Earth, blocking sunlight, which with tidal waves, global forest fires and a host of other apocalyptic events caused mass extinction.

Until then, the cause of the K-T boundary had been the subject of more speculation than evidence. In the fossil record, microscopic sea creatures appear to flourish right up to the boundary, but dinosaur species started dwindling millions of years earlier, a discrepancy that still stymies many experts. Geologists noted that oceans had been shrinking, volcanoes had been active and the climate likely changing 65 million years ago. But geologists say no one had put together all those factors into a rigorous explanation that made more sense than the asteroid-impact theory.

Less likely theories about nearby exploding stars blanketing the Earth with deadly radiation or early mammals eating all the dinosaurs' eggs also were proposed. Most scientists hoped for more evidence.

Alvarez's team analyzed a layer of iridium-laced clay in 65-million-year-old Italian soil. Iridium is rare on Earth but common in space; the researchers calculated a comet or asteroid 6 miles wide likely laid down the layer worldwide. By 1990, two years after Alvarez's death, the 186-mile-wide Chicxulub crater had emerged as the likely impact site, and the theory had gained wide acceptance among geologists and many paleontologists. They expected to see conclusive traces of iridium and microscopic fossil deaths in a Chicxulub sample.

'A double whammy'

Current thinking is that although volcanoes were very active 65 million years ago, most researchers, except for dinosaur experts, believe the impact theory explains K-T boundary extinction, says Peter Ward of the University of Washington in Seattle, a paleontologist and geologist who has looked at the extinction of sea creatures at the K-T boundary. Keller's explanation seems unlikely, he says, given that intense volcanism had been occurring for millions of years before the impact with no apparent effect on fossils or geologic records.

Keller plans to continue looking for evidence of a second asteroid impact crater in the Indian Ocean. Her research suggests that volcanoes did trigger intense climate change, showing that temperatures zoomed up and then down over the 300,000 years before the Chicxulub impact. That was followed, she believes, by another impact several hundred thousand years later that led to the mass extinction. "A double whammy knocked them out," she insists. "If we could have watched the planet from somewhere else, it surely must have been an amazing time."

 

 


November 11, 2003

(9) When Will the Next Ice Age Begin?

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

The maxim "what goes around comes around" applies to few things more aptly than ice ages. In a rhythm attuned to regular wiggles in Earth's orbit and spin, 10 eras of spreading ice sheets and falling seas have come and gone over the last million years.

Through that span, in fact, the cold spells have so dominated that geophysicists regard warm periods like the present one, called the Holocene, as the oddities. Indeed, the scientific name for these periods — interglacials — reflects the exceptional nature of such times.

The next ice age almost certainly will reach its peak in about 80,000 years, but debate persists about how soon it will begin, with the latest theory being that the human influence on the atmosphere may substantially delay the transition.

This is no mere intellectual exercise. The equable conditions of the Holocene, which has lasted 10,000 years so far, have enabled the flowering of agriculture, technology, mobility and resulting explosive population growth that has made the human species a global force.

Any substantial climate shift is likely to pose enormous, though probably surmountable, challenges.

Just 30 years ago, after a prolonged global cool spell, many climate scientists, including some now focused on global warming, posited that Earth might already be seeing the onset of the next big chill.

Evidence from sea sediments and other sources had consistently put the duration of the previous warm spell at about 10,000 years, and it was presumed that this provided at least a rough hint of the longevity of the current interglacial.

The notion that cooling was imminent was challenged several years ago. Some scientists gleaned more details about the previous warm spell, which occurred 130,000 years ago, and concluded that it lasted twice as long as they had previously estimated — 20,000 years instead of 10,000.

Others have proposed that an earlier warm era that lasted even longer — 30,000 years — was a better model for the Holocene. But many experts still say they are convinced that the current warmth should, under the influence of orbital cycles alone, near an end "any millennium now," as Dr. Richard A. Muller, a physicist at the University of California at Berkeley, puts it.

But the planet is feeling a new influence, that of people. Humans may delay the dawn of the next ice age by a millennium or two, or even longer, many climate experts say, as Earth's long-buried stores of coal, oil and other carbon-rich fossil fuels are burned, releasing billions of tons of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

That insulating blanket has a bigger climatic influence than the slight flux in incoming solar energy from changes in Earth's orientation relative to the Sun, said Dr. James A. Hansen, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

"We have taken over control of the mechanisms that determine the climate change," he said.

Other scientists, while agreeing with this thesis for the short term, say that eventually the buffering properties of the atmosphere, ocean and Earth will restore balance, returning most of the liberated carbon to long-term storage and allowing the orbital rhythm once again to dominate.

"Orbital changes are in a slow dance leading to a peak 80,000 years from now," said Dr. Eric J. Barron, the dean of the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at Penn State. "I can hardly imagine that human influences won't have run their course by that time."

It may seem that human-driven global warming, although perhaps a disaster on the scale of centuries, may be a good thing in the long run if it fends off the next ice age awhile.

But many climatologists note that the complex interplay of greenhouse gases, orbital shifts and other influences on climate remain poorly understood. In fact, some experts say, there is a chance that human-induced warming could shut down heat-toting ocean currents that keep northern latitudes warmer than they otherwise would be. The result could be a faster descent into glacial times instead of a delay.

 



November 18, 2003 New York Times

China Set to Act on Fuel Economy

Associated Press</p><p> With car ownership in Chinese cities growing, traffic clogged a Beijing perimeter road last month.

With car ownership in Chinese cities growing, traffic clogged a Beijing perimeter road last month.

By KEITH BRADSHER

Published: November 18, 2003

GUANGZHOU, China, Nov. 17 — The Chinese government is preparing to impose minimum fuel economy standards on new cars for the first time, and the rules will be significantly more stringent than those in the United States, according to Chinese experts involved in drafting them.

The new standards are intended both to save energy and to force automakers to introduce the latest hybrid engines and other technology in China, in hopes of easing the nation's swiftly rising dependence on oil imports from volatile countries in the Middle East.

They are the latest and most ambitious in a series of steps to regulate China's rapidly growing auto industry, after moves earlier this year to require that air bags be provided for both front-seat occupants in most new vehicles and that new family vehicles sold in major cities meet air pollution standards nearly as strict as those in Western Europe and the United States.

Some popular vehicles now built in China by Western automakers, including the Chevrolet Blazer, do not measure up to the standards the government has drafted, and may have to be modified to get better gas mileage before the first phase of the new rules becomes effective in July 2005.

The Chinese initiative comes at a time when Congress is close to completing work on a major energy bill that would make no significant changes in America's fuel economy rules for vehicles. The Chinese standards, in general, call for new cars, vans and sport utility vehicles to get as much as two miles a gallon of fuel more in 2005 than the average required in the United States, and about five miles more in 2008.

This country's economy is booming, and a growing upper class in big cities like this one is rapidly buying all the accouterments of a prosperous Western life, including cars. As China burns more fossil fuels, both in factories and in a rapidly growing fleet of motor vehicles, its contribution to global warming is also rising faster than any other country's.

But Zhang Jianwei, the vice president and top technical official of the Chinese agency that writes vehicle standards, said in a telephone interview on Monday that energy security was the paramount concern in drafting the new automotive fuel economy rules, and that global warming had received little attention.

"China has become an important importer of oil so it has to have regulations to save energy," said Mr. Zhang, who is also deputy secretary of the 39-member interagency committee that approved the rules at a meeting this month.

China was a net oil exporter until a decade ago, but its output has not kept up with soaring demand. It now depends on imports of oil for one-third of its needs, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Angola. Before the war, Iraq was also an important supplier. By comparison, the United States now imports about 55 percent of the oil it uses.

The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, the volume of China's oil imports will equal American imports now. Chinese strategists have expressed growing worry about depending on a lifeline of oil tankers stretching across the Indian Ocean, through the Strait of Malacca, a waterway plagued by piracy, and across the South China Sea, protected mainly by the United States Navy.

Various Chinese government agencies still have three months to review the legal language in the fuel economy rules, giving automakers some time to lobby against them; as yet, there has been no mention of the approval of the new rules in the government-controlled Chinese media.

But Mr. Zhang said that the rules in draft form were the product of a very strong consensus among government agencies and that "the technical content won't be changed."

Two executives at Volkswagen, the largest foreign automaker in China, said that representatives of their company and of domestic Chinese automakers attended what they described as the final interagency meeting to approve the rules. Under pressure from the government, these auto industry representatives agreed to the new rules despite misgivings, the executives said. "They had no choice but to agree," one of the Volkswagen executives added.

The executive said that Volkswagen's vehicles would meet the first phase of the standards in 2005, while declining to comment on compliance with the second, more rigorous phase, which is to take effect in July 2008.

The new standards are based on a vehicle's weight — lighter vehicles must go the farthest on a gallon — and on the type of transmission, with manual-shift cars required to go farther than those with less efficient automatic transmissions.

In a major departure from American practice, all new sport utility vehicles and minivans in China would be required to meet the same standards as automatic-shift cars of the same weight. In the United States, standards for sport utilities and minivans are much lower than for cars.

The Chinese rules do not cover pickups or commercial trucks. According to General Motors market research, there is little demand for pickup trucks in China except from businesses, because the affluent urban consumer who can afford a new vehicle regards pickup trucks as unsophisticated and too reminiscent of the horse-drawn carts still used in some rural areas.

Typically, heavy vehicles are much harder on fuel than light ones, but the new Chinese standards permit the heavy vehicles to get only slightly worse gas mileage. As a result, they provide an incentive for manufacturers to offer smaller, lighter vehicles, which will be easier to design.

The new standards would require all small cars sold in China to achieve slightly better gas mileage than the average new small car sold in the United States now gets, according to calculations by An Feng, a transportation consultant who advised the government on the rules. But officials in Beijing would require much better minimum gas mileage for minivans and, especially, S.U.V.'s than the average vehicle of either type now gets in the United States.

American regulations call for each automaker to produce a fleet of passenger cars with an average fuel economy of 27.5 miles a gallon under a combination of city and highway driving with no traffic; window-sticker values for gas mileage, which include the effects of traffic, are about 15 percent lower. Light trucks, including vans, S.U.V.'s and pickups, are allowed an average of 20.7 miles a gallon without traffic.

But the Bush administration has raised the comparable American standard to 22.2 miles a gallon for the 2007 model year and is now completing a review of whether to raise limits further for 2008. The administration is also considering adopting different standards for different weight classes of light trucks.

Over all, average fuel economy in the United States has been eroding since the late 1980's as automakers shifted production from cars to light trucks. It fell in the 2002 model year to the lowest level since 1980. Automakers in Europe have accepted European Union demands to increase fuel economy under different rules that could prove at least as stringent as China's minimums.

The Chinese standards would require the greatest increases for full-size S.U.V.'s like the Ford Expedition, which would have to go as much as 29 percent farther on a gallon of fuel in 2008 than they do now in the United States, Mr. An calculated. Sport utility sales in China have more than doubled so far this year, but are still a much smaller part of the overall market than they are in the United States.

Because the American standards are fleet averages while the Chinese standards are minimums for each vehicle, the effect of the Chinese rules could be considerably more stringent. A manufacturer can sell vehicles in the United States that are far below average in fuel efficiency if it has others in its product line that offset it by being above average. But under the Chinese rules, the fuel-inefficient models — especially new ones introduced after the standards take effect — would be subject to fines no matter how well their siblings do, Mr. Zhang said, and the maker would not be allowed to expand production of the gas-guzzling models. In Garrison Keillor's phrase, China plans to require that every vehicle be above average.

Mr. An said that at the final meetings on the new rules, the only outspoken objections had come from a representative of the Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Company, which makes Jeeps in a joint venture with DaimlerChrysler.

According to people who have seen the new standards, many Jeep models sold in China do not now comply with them; neither do the Chevrolet Blazer sport utilities built by a General Motors joint venture in Shenyang. Some of Volkswagen's car models also fall slightly short, these people said. By contrast, Honda's cars, built at a sprawling factory complex here in Guangzhou, the commercial hub of southern China, would comply easily because they use advanced engine technology, these people said.

Trevor Hale, a DaimlerChrysler spokesman, declined to comment in detail. "DaimlerChrysler complies with local regulations where it does business," Mr. Hale said in an e-mail response to an inquiry. "It continues working to improve fuel economy in the vehicles it develops, builds and sells around the world."

Bernd Leissner, the president of Volkswagen Asia Pacific, said that his company's cars would comply because "it's just a question of how to adapt the engine — it's something that could be done quickly."

The fastest way to improve fuel efficiency is to switch from gasoline to diesel engines, as Volkswagen is starting to do in China. The latest diesel engines are much cleaner than those of a decade ago, but are still more polluting than gasoline engines of similar power.

A spokeswoman for General Motors, which is beginning to introduce Cadillac luxury cars in China, said she did not have enough information about the newly drafted rules to comment on them, but that her company's vehicles were comparable in fuel economy to those of rival manufacturers in the same market segments. Executives of G.M. were preparing for an event in Beijing on Tuesday and Wednesday when the company plans to showcase examples of its work on gasoline-saving fuel-cell and hybrid engines for cars.

In the United States, G.M. has argued that tighter fuel economy rules are unnecessary because technological improvements will someday improve efficiency anyway. G.M. and other automakers have also contended in the United States that higher gasoline taxes would represent a better policy than higher gas mileage standards, because it would give drivers an economic incentive to choose more efficient vehicles and to drive fewer miles.

China is still considering its policy on fuel taxes, but has not acted so far, because higher fuel taxes would impose higher costs on many sections of society, Mr. Zhang said.

Another company that could run into trouble over the Chinese mileage standards is Toyota, which on Nov. 6 began selling a locally produced version of its full-size Land Cruiser sport utility vehicle in China. A spokesman said on Monday that Toyota had not yet heard about the new Chinese fuel economy regulations, which have been prepared with a level of secrecy typical of many Chinese regulatory actions.

Japan is also phasing in new fuel efficiency standards based on vehicle weight that allow heavier vehicles only slightly worse gas mileage than lighter ones. American automakers have complained that the Japanese rules discriminate against them because Japanese automakers tend to produce slightly lighter cars anyway.

China has more than 100 automakers, as Detroit did a century ago, but the bulk of its output comes from a small number of joint ventures with multinational companies. Total production has more than doubled in the last three years, to about 3.8 million cars and light trucks in 2002, nearly as many as Germany. The United States builds about 12 million a year, Japan about 10 million.

The cars that Chinese automakers produce on their own tend to be very small and lightweight, but the engines are built on older technology, and may not have an easy time complying with the new fuel economy standards.

The government has been encouraging the industry to consolidate, and the new rules may hasten that process by forcing investment in engine designs that small companies may not be able to afford on their own.

 

 

 


November 23, 2003

After 200 Years of Growth, Level of Methane Stabilizes

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

After a 200-year rise driven mainly by human activities, atmospheric levels of methane, the second most important greenhouse gas, have stopped growing, scientists are reporting. Climate experts said the stabilization of methane, though probably temporary, is important evidence that steps to curb emissions could slow global warming even as disputes persist over what to do about carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas.

"This is a big deal," said Dr. James A. Hansen, a climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies who has highlighted the importance of methane as a heat-trapping gas for years.

It is clearer than ever that "methane presents an opportunity for a global warming success story," he said. "We could get it to stop increasing and even decrease somewhat, mostly with actions that make sense for other reasons." Such actions could include stanching leaks in pipelines or capturing gas released during mining or oil drilling.

The side benefits would include improved air quality, he and other experts said. Methane not only warms the atmosphere but also contributes to the formation of ozone, an ingredient of smog.

Actions to cut methane emissions would also produce far quicker results than measures to curb carbon dioxide. Once released, methane, the main component in natural gas, remains in the atmosphere for only 8 to 10 years before it breaks down. Carbon dioxide, which is released every time a fossil fuel or forest is burned, can last a century and has been accumulating steadily in the air.

The American and Dutch researchers who measured the change in methane levels said they found evidence that human actions, while not aimed at stemming climate change, appeared to be the cause — specifically the near shutdown of oil and gas extraction after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Old production methods released vast streams of the gas from leaking pipelines, uncapped wells and the like. Newer, less leaky methods are slowly being adopted now.

Some climate experts had already noted that emissions of methane were more variable, and perhaps more controllable, than those of carbon dioxide. But this is the first time that scientists have found a sustained plateau in methane concentrations, from 1999 to 2002. A global analysis has not been completed for 2003.

The new analysis, described in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters, is by the Commerce Department's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., and the National Institute for Space Research of the Netherlands.

Dr. Hansen said it was premature to point to a particular reason for the change because methane has so many sources. About 70 percent comes from human activities — with most from fossil-fuel extraction. But methane also comes from sources as varied as the digestive tract of cattle and termites, wetlands, rice paddies and garbage dumps.

The scientists collected measurements of methane in the air taken at 43 monitoring stations around the world and compared them with a European database of records kept on emissions from various sources.

By examining regional difference in methane concentrations, they found the plateau appeared to result mainly from a sharp drop in emissions in 1991 and 1992 in latitudes north of 50 degrees — a region dominated by Russia and Canada.

Other evidence, they said, pointed more precisely to Russia, including measurements taken at Canada's Alert military base — the northernmost inhabited spot on Earth — that tracked air masses drifting directly from Siberia.

The drop in methane levels there appears to have more than compensated for a rise in emissions from Asia, said Dr. Edward J. Dlugokencky, the lead author of the study and a scientist at the Boulder laboratory.

"If we hadn't had decreases in the former Soviet Union, we wouldn't have seen methane flat for the last four years," he said.

Some scientists concurred with that conclusion, but other experts on methane, though agreeing a plateau had been reached, said they were not yet convinced that the Russian downturn in emissions was the reason.

"Methane is an incredibly messy problem," said Dr. Inez Y. Fung, the director of the atmospheric sciences center at the University of California at Berkeley. She said its level varies not only as sources shrink or grow, but also because it is destroyed at changing rates — depending on other substances, including other pollution, in the air.

And, she added, the estimates of emissions from various sources, particularly nonindustrial ones like rice cultivation, are extremely rough.

She said an untapped source of evidence that could show the link to Russian gas fields could be satellite images of the world at night. Flares on oil rigs destroy only a portion of the methane and could reveal overall activity, and leakage, in such areas, she said.

The biggest question now is whether methane will resume the climb that has more than doubled its concentration since the start of the industrial revolution.

Dr. Dlugokencky said that all depends on how assertively countries and companies work to stem emissions — noting that human behavior is the most uncertain factor of all.

Prof. Jesse H. Ausubel, the director of Program for the Human Environment at Rockefeller University in Manhattan, said that particularly now that natural gas has become a valuable commodity there are strong economic incentives to stop leaks.

"This is better than a no regrets action," he said. "This should be a case where, with little outlay, people can actually win an economic benefit."


 

 

 

 


NO CRISIS, NO BILL?

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: November 23, 2003

The energy bill backs development of coal, which, critics complain, contributes to global warming.

THE struggle over the first national energy legislation in a decade culminated Friday when the Senate failed by three votes to cut off debate on the bill, leaving the measure — and American energy policy — in limbo.

Supporters of the bill warned of dire consequences should it not pass. "Failing to pass this bill will mean losing every incentive we need to maximize American energy production, to stabilize the energy market, to improve the power grid, and to create jobs," said Senator Peter W. Domenici, Republican of New Mexico.

But the sudden stall came over what appeared to be a relatively minor issue — the costs of a provision protecting oil companies from lawsuits filed over water contaminated with the gasoline additive MTBE. This leads to a question: If the nation were truly confronting an energy crisis, would the first energy bill in years, sought by the White House, Republican leaders and some Democrats, entailing $31 billion in eventual costs, suffer this kind of defeat?

The answer, many supporters and opponents of the legislation acknowledge, is no.

The 1,200-page bill was built on President Bush's 2001 National Energy Policy, which, responding in part to the power shortages that roiled California, spoke of "our nation's energy crisis," and called for large investments in energy of all kinds — old-fashioned, renewable, nuclear, alternative.

But California's problems, like last summer's great blackout, were the result of flawed policies and ineffectual regulation, not a shortage of gigawatts or oil, according to the findings of government commissions and scientists.

The real crises on the horizon are rising dependence on foreign oil, uncertain natural gas supplies and the climate impact of emissions from unabated burning of fossil fuels, say some energy analysts and environmentalists.

To its critics, then, the stalled energy bill is merely a "porkfolio" of special-interest spending that, among many expensive provisions, doubles the amount of ethanol produced from corn, a process that uses far more energy than it provides, and authorizes a uranium enrichment plant in New Mexico that could cost $1 billion.

In addition, there is so much money for boosting the use of coal, the fuel that scientists say contributes the most to global warming, that Jack Gerard, the president of the National Mining Association, issued a statement proclaiming, "The grants, loans, tax incentives and research dollars for coal in this bill will give an unprecedented demand stimulus to coal-based economies."

Through the debate on the bill, Mr. Bush maintained some distance, lauding Congress's efforts to write the energy package, but not embracing the legislation itself. But late Friday, the president told reporters, "For the sake of our national security and economic security, the Senate's got to pass this bill."

But Steven M. Nadel, executive director of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, a private research group, disagrees with the administration's basic approach. The cheapest way to harvest energy, he says, is to use less of it. Indeed, he applauds the conservation measures included in the energy bill, like higher efficiency standards for refrigerators.

"If this was just a bill that contained the efficiency provisions, I'd probably say it's an excellent bill," Mr. Nadel said.

Most advocates of conservation agree, however, that the country will not move in that direction until Americans are faced with a costly energy crisis.

Mr. Nadel noted that the first time Congress wrote bills combining energy conservation and alternatives to fossil fuels was 30 years ago, as Americans sat in blocks-long lines at gas stations.

In large part through measures requiring higher gas-mileage standards for cars, such legislation led to strong economic growth and simultaneous sharp drops in energy use. From 1979 to 1986, while gross domestic product grew 20 percent, Americans cut total energy use 5 percent, said Amory B. Lovins, a founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, a private energy analysis group, and an advocate of energy efficiency.

The institute has calculated that the country's biggest new source of energy since the 1970's has been energy saved through efficiency gains — not gleaned through a new oil well or mine.

Administration officials say that new production is essential. Without the new legislation, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said on Friday, "We can't do the sorts of things that we've been talking about to transform our energy dependency into a situation in which America has abundant natural reserves of energy here at home."

Mr. Nadel believes conservation as a national policy will not arrive until it costs too much to avoid it.

"If we truly have an energy squeeze like we did in the 1970's, then it's possible to get a decent energy policy," Mr. Nadel said. "Until then, no one wants to sacrifice their S.U.V.'s or tax breaks for the folks back home and most votes will tend to be on parochial interests rather than the big picture."


 

 

 

 


November 22, 2003

Pension Funds Plan to Press Global Warming as an Issue

By BARNABY J. FEDER

Officials controlling some of the nation's largest pension funds announced plans yesterday to press regulators, public companies and Wall Street to pay more heed to the potential financial upheaval from climate change. They said that their effort would be coordinated through a new group, the Investor Network on Climate Risk.

"In global warming, we are facing an enormous risk to the U.S. economy and to retirement funds that Wall Street has so far chosen to ignore," said Philip Angelides, the treasurer of California.

In addition to Mr. Angelides, the founders of the network include the New York State comptroller, Alan Hevesi; the New York City comptroller, William Thompson; and Denise Nappier, the treasurer of Connecticut. They were joined by counterparts from New Mexico, Oregon, Maine and Vermont as well as officials overseeing two major union pension funds.

Their plans, which they termed a "call to action," were announced in conjunction with a meeting at the United Nations that brought together fund managers representing more than $1 trillion in assets and representatives from numerous Wall Street banks and investment advisers.

The meeting was the most elaborate effort yet by a growing group of fund managers, shareholder advocates and environmentalists to persuade businesses to move more aggressively to identify and address problems they might face from global warming, increasingly frequent extreme weather and other climate changes that have been linked to the rapid buildup in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases.

The meeting was addressed by both Kofi Annan, the secretary general of the United Nations, and the former vice president, Al Gore, who said, "This is not business as usual - the relationship between the human species and the planet on which we live has been utterly transformed."

Investment managers who attended the meeting said they had no trouble agreeing that the challenge was a daunting one. But many fund managers were uncertain how the climate change projections reviewed at the start of the meeting could translate into investment strategy. One recounted his experience setting up a fund at the request of two clients in 1990 to invest in companies that were developing environmentally beneficial products or doing business in a more environmentally sound way than their peers. The clients asked him to shut the fund down just more than two years later when it failed to do as well as the rest of the stock market.

Abby Joseph Cohen, managing director at Goldman Sachs, noted the public was not yet rewarding sensitivity to climate issues in the marketplace or at the polls. "Someone's obviously buying and driving those S.U.V.'s, and they are voting," she said.

But others like Mr. Angelides argued that responsible pension fund managers had a legal responsibility to take a longer view. He said managers had to prod businesses to study the issue more and report more, invest in companies positioned to profit from climate change, put some of their money into funds that screen businesses for socially responsible behavior, and, if they own real estate, look to reduce the environmental impact of their buildings.

The Investor Network founders said that one of their first moves would be to press the Securities and Exchange Commission to require more disclosure in corporate filings of climate risks and to give investors more leeway in forcing companies to allow shareholder resolutions on the subject at annual meetings.

None of the activists said that they planned to divest themselves of the stocks of companies they viewed as lagging on climate concerns. Mr. Hevesi called divestment the last resort.


 

 


Dec 1, 11:03 AM EST  AP news release

U.N. Climate Conference Opens in Italy

MILAN, Italy (AP) -- A United Nations conference on climate change opened Monday in Milan amid strong doubts that the Kyoto pact on curbing greenhouse gas emissions might ever get off the ground.

The worries over the fate of the 1997 protocol - after Russia indicated that it might reject it - has cast a cloud over the conference, which is gathering hundreds of delegates in Italy's financial capital through Dec. 12.

The Kyoto treaty sets a target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 8 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. Russian ratification is essential since the United States pulled out in 2001, saying the measures would be too harmful to the U.S. economy

To take effect, the pact must be ratified by at least 55 countries, including those responsible for causing 55 percent of world greenho11use gas emissions in 1990. With the United States out of the treaty, that minimum can be reached only with Russian participation.

"We all know that emission cuts and climate change can and must only be dealt with in a global way," Italian Environment Minister Altero Matteoli said on the opening day of the conference.

"The Milan event will help us move more quickly toward sustainable development," he added.

Matteoli also said he was confident Moscow would end up signing onto the treaty despite its strong reservations, but he ruled out that that might happen during the Milan conference.

In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin predicted that the pact would fail to reverse climate change, "even with 100 percent compliance." His economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, contended the Kyoto Protocol would "doom Russia to poverty, weakness and backwardness."

Up for discussion in Milan are also rules under which industrialized nations can earn credits toward satisfying their own emission-reducing requirements by helping developing nations, which aren't required under the protocol to reduce emissions.

Eligible projects range from making factories more energy efficient to helping promote forests, which absorb carbon dioxide, a chief greenhouse gas culprit.

The conference is gathering scientists, environmentalists and government officials from across the world, including at least 80 ministers who are expected to attend its final sessions. The meeting is being chaired by the Hungarian environment minister, Miklos Persanyi.

Environmental groups kept up the pressure on governments to act soon, citing the impact of climate change on the lives of millions of people, such as increased desertification, water shortages, more extreme weather conditions and a rise in the levels of seas and oceans.

"We can't afford to wait any longer," said Steven Guilbeault of Greenpeace International.

 

 

 


December 2, 2003

Putin Aide Rules Out Russian Approval of Kyoto Protocol

By STEVEN LEE MYERS and ANDREW C. REVKIN

MOSCOW, Dec. 2 — A senior Kremlin official said today that Russia would not ratify the international treaty requiring cuts in emissions of gases linked to global warming, delivering what could be the fatal blow to years of diplomatic efforts to address the problem.

With the Bush administration having previously rejected the treaty, known as the Kyoto Protocol, Russia essentially held a veto over its enactment, since the agreement could only take effect when adopted by enough countries to account for 55 percent of emissions by industrialized countries. Some 120 countries have done so, but without Russia or the United States, that 55 percent threshold cannot be met.

President Vladimir V. Putin announced Russia's rejection of the treaty during a meeting at the Kremlin with European businessmen, the senior official, Andrei N. Illarionov, said in public remarks and in an interview.

The Russian statements reverberated powerfully today in Milan, where hundreds of delegates from around the world are in the second day of a two-week meeting on the proposed protocol and an underlying climate treaty that contains no binding provisions.

Some participants saw Russia's apparent retreat as accelerating a wave of doubt about the practicality of a pact requiring prompt cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide, a gas that remains a fundamental byproduct of burning the fossil fuels underpinning modern economies.

But United Nations officials and others, noting that Mr. Putin himself did not comment publicly on the treaty, expressed hope that Mr. Illarionov's remarks did not reflect Russia's official position.

"This gentleman has said in the past that he was not convinced about the protocol, and Mr. Putin has not said anything different from what he said so far," said Michael Williams, a spokesman for the United Nations officials administering the treaties. "So there is no reason for us to interpret this as anything other than comments from one of his advisers."

But Mr. Illarionov asserted in a telephone interview that Russia's decision not to adopt the treaty was unequivocal. "We shall not ratify," he said.

That decision, ending more than a year of speculation about Russia's position, brushed aside impassioned appeals from the United Nations and from individual countries, especially in Europe, that have embraced the protocol as the best way to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases that many scientists have linked to a potentially dangerous rise in global temperatures.

The treaty, completed in the Japanese city of Kyoto in 1997 after two years of intense diplomatic wrangling, called on major industrialized countries to reduce emissions before 2012 by 5.2 percent from 1990 levels. Barring a 11th-hour reversal of position by Russia, the treaty now appears dead, leaving uncertain the future of international cooperation on the question of global warming.

As recently as last year, President Putin indicated Russia's willingness to sign the accord, but since then he and other officials have wavered, raising questions about whether the country stood to benefit from ratification, especially without the participation of the United States and without mandatory limits on developing countries like China.

That exemption to China, as well as to India and other big developing nations, also figured prominently in President Bush's stated rationale for opposing the accord, as did concern over the costs of complying with it.

At a climate conference in Moscow in September, Mr. Putin said Russia remained committed to addressing climate change, but he also shocked many conferees with an impromptu quip suggesting that global warming could benefit a country hardened by winter cold. "We shall save on fur coats and other warm things," he said.

Mr. Illarionov said the treaty's supporters had failed to answer questions about the treaty's scientific rationale, its fairness and the potential harm to Russia's economy, which Mr. Putin has pledged to double over the next decade.

"A number of questions have been raised about the link between carbon dioxide and climate change, which do not appear convincing," Mr. Illarionov said. "And clearly it sets very serious brakes on economic growth which do not look justified."

In a telephone interview from the Milan treaty talks, the climate policy director for the World Wildlife Fund, Jennifer Morgan, echoed the hopeful sentiments of the United Nations officials, saying she saw nothing in the statements from Mr. Illarionov as representing official government policy. She said Mr. Putin himself, while repeatedly noting this fall that Russia had to take time to weigh the treaty's merits against potential economic costs, had never explicitly rejected it.

As for the statements by Mr. Illarionov, Mr. Putin's adviser, Ms. Morgan said: "This is not really a surprise. This has been his line all along."

A statement issued by the wildlife fund further dismissed his remarks as "nothing more than pre-election bluster" tied to parliamentary elections in Russia on Sunday.

The statement quoted the fund's chief representative in Russia, Alexey Kokorin, as minimizing Mr. Illarionov's stature. "Illarionov does not speak for the president or the Russian government," Mr. Kokorin said. "This is just the latest statement in a long line of predictions by Illarionov which have failed to eventuate. He opposed the Russian energy strategy, which was then adopted in May 2003, and he poured cold water on the economic plan for G.D.P. growth, which was also later adopted."

Since the collapse of Soviet-era industry, Russia's emission of gases has fallen by an estimated 30 percent, meaning it could easily have met its required reductions. Under the treaty's complex formulas, it stood to gain financially from selling credits that would allow other countries to exceed the treaty's limits. Some major Russian industries lobbied for the protocol, seeing it as a way to use the credits to modernize aging plants.

Without the United States, however, many officials here concluded that the potential economic gains would not be as lucrative as first thought. And with the Russian economy increasingly reliant on oil and gas production and exports, the officials concluded that the treaty's limits could become a drag on economic growth in the future.

Aleksei V. Yablokov, a former environmental official under President Boris N. Yeltsin and now president of the Center for Ecological Policy in Moscow, said he believed the American decision weighed heavily on the Kremlin. He added that Russian industries also feared having to make a full disclosure of their emissions, suggesting actual levels had been underreported.

"All of this is a political game," he said. "It has nothing to do with the environment. It has nothing to do with economics."

The protocol is an outgrowth of the first international climate treaty, the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, which committed the world's industrialized nations to work voluntarily to avoid "dangerous" human interference with the climate system, but never defined "dangerous."

After signatories in 1995 recognized that emissions were continuing to grow, negotiations began toward a binding addendum, culminating in 1997 with the current protocol. The targets for individual countries ranged widely depending on their contribution to the problem and intensive bargaining aimed at being sure no country was getting too great a competitive advantage.

It has become clear in the last two years that even the countries with the easiest targets are unlikely to achieve them, given the continuing growth in the global economy and — inevitably — in emissions of the warming gases.

Even as the statements from Russia rocked the treaty talks, the European Commission issued a report warning that the European Union over all, and 13 of its 15 member states, would fail to meet their targets under the Kyoto Protocol unless new measures to curb greenhouse emissions were enacted.

The European Union had generally been perceived as having a relatively easy time of it under the treaty, because of longstanding existing economic trends, like Britain's shift from coal to North Sea natural gas, which produces far fewer greenhouse gases when burned.

Mr. Illarionov said that Russia remained receptive to an international effort to reduce harmful emissions. But he insisted that Russia would not ratify a treaty that did not include the United States, China and other nations that, he said, produced more gases than Russia and had greater financial resources to cope with the economic consequences of reductions.

A new treaty that "would be truly global," he said, "could be a new basis in which we could start discussions."

Steven Lee Myers contributed reporting from Moscow and Andrew C. Revkin reported from New York.


 

 


Dec 2, 4:14 PM EST

Global Warming Threatening Ski Resorts



TURIN, Italy (AP) -- Global warming is threatening the world's ski resorts, with melting at lower altitudes forcing the sport to move higher and higher up mountains, according to a United Nations study released Tuesday.

Downhill skiing could disappear altogether at some resorts, while at others, a retreating snow line will cut off base villages from their ski runs as soon as 2030, warned the report by the U.N. Environment Program.

"Climate change is happening now. We can measure it," said Klaus Toepfer, executive director of the U.N. program. "This study shows that it is not just the developing world that will suffer."

The report focused on ski resorts in Austria, Italy, Switzerland, Australia, the United States and Canada, using temperature forecasts produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of some 2,000 scientists.

The panel estimated temperatures will rise by a range of 2.5 degrees to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 unless dramatic action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Many scientists believe that carbon dioxide and other so-called "greenhouse" gases trap heat in the atmosphere.

"It appears clear that many resorts, particularly the traditional, lower altitude resorts of Europe, will be either unable to operate as a result of lack of snow or will face additional costs, including artificial snowmaking, that may render them uneconomic," the report said.

U.N. officials presented their findings at an environmental conference of the International Olympic Committee, or IOC, hosted by organizers for the Turin 2006 Olympics.

The findings prompted Pal Schmitt, head of the committee's Sport and Environment Commission, to say that global warming will "probably affect how the IOC chooses host cities for future Winter Games."

Schmitt said that the IOC still prefers new candidate cities, but it may be forced to return to sites of recent games to avoid having to build structures that could be obsolete in the near future.

The magic number for ski resorts right now is an altitude of 4,265 feet, according to Rolf Buerk, an economic geographer at the University of Zurich who led the research behind the report.

At that level and above, there is reliable snowfall. In the future, however, global warming is going to push the regular snowfall altitude to between 4,900 feet and 6,000 feet, Buerk said.

"In Switzerland, several low-lying resorts are already having problems getting bank loans," he said.

One likely casualty is the scenic Austrian village of Kitzbuhel, Buerk said. The village is 2,493 feet above sea level and will eventually be cut off from its ski slopes. That's because, according to the report, Austria's snow line is expected to rise by 656 to 984 feet over the next 30-50 years.

The director of Kitzbuhel's tourism office was not immediately available for comment, but other ski resort areas expressed concern.

"We see this as a long-term threat," said Eduardo Zwissig, marketing manager of the upscale Swiss resort at Gstaad, which is at 3,465-foot level and has skiing from 4,950 to 9,900 feet.

He said authorities are looking for ways to "minimize economic risk," with plans including new hiking trails that can be used in summer and winter, as well as convention centers.

Asked about Swiss banks' reported wariness to lend money to resorts, Zwissig said: "We certainly feel this pressure."

Doris Scholl, of Grindelwald Tourist Office in Switzerland, said the resort was actively trying to expand non-skiing alternatives. But, she said, there have been investments in new ski lifts this year and more are planned.

"The situation isn't as tragic as that," Scholl said.

Buerk, the economic geographer, said artificial snow is not the answer.

"The main reason is it's too expensive," he said, explaining that it costs $600,000 in installation fees and $60,000 each year for each mile of artificial snow. "And if it's warmer than (freezing), it requires a lot of energy," Buerk added.

Researchers behind the U.N. study said they hoped the report would spur resorts into action.

And David Chernushenko, a scientist on the climate change panel based in Canada, cited examples in North America where resorts have begun to take steps to be more environmentally friendly.

The "Sustainable Slopes" program in Aspen, Colo., is a "world leader in running efficient ski centers," with a new ski lift run entirely on power generated by windmills, he said.

In Whistler, British Columbia, site of alpine events for the 2010 Olympics, the "entire town (is) moving toward environmental conservation," he said.

Ultimately, however, Chernushenko said the onus was on governments. "The ski, hotel and resort industry is a multinational one," he said. "And if they act together they can apply pressure on politicians."

---


washingtonpost.com

Russia Signals Support for Global Warming Treaty
Government 'Moving Towards Ratification' of Kyoto Treaty Despite Top Aide's Protest

By Peter Baker
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, December 4, 2003; 2:05 PM

MOSCOW, Dec. 3 -- The Russian government declared Wednesday that it is "moving toward ratification" of the Kyoto treaty on global warming despite opposition by a top aide to President Vladimir Putin, offering environmentalists renewed hope of enacting the landmark pact.

The government's declaration signaled that Russia has not ruled out the international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and is still staking out bargaining positions before deciding whether to join the accord. It contradicted Putin's chief economics adviser, Andrei Illarionov, who predicted Tuesday that Russia would not ratify it.

"There are no decisions about ratification of the Kyoto protocol except that we are moving toward ratification," Mukhamed Tsikanov, deputy minister for economic development and trade, told a hurriedly organized news conference that was called to offset the impression left by the Putin adviser's comments. Tsikanov added that "Russia will ratify the protocol if it is proved that it is in our interest."

Russia has resisted ratifying the treaty while holding out for guarantees that there would be economic benefits for Russia. Ever since the Bush administration abandoned the Kyoto accord, Russia has essentially controlled its fate because to go into effect the pact requires participation of countries accounting for 55 percent of the world's emissions. Without Russia, which produced 17 percent of those emissions in 1990, the treaty's baseline year, the Kyoto accord would die.

Because of a historic quirk in timing, Russia stands to profit from the treaty. The agreement sets the goal of reducing greenhouse emissions from levels of 1990, when the Soviet Union's factories were pumping out pollutants at far higher rates than the economically weaker Russian economy is today.

As a result, Russia could sell its excess pollution quota to other countries trying to meet Kyoto targets and it wants to cut deals with Japan, Canada or European countries before ratifying it.

Putin's economic adviser, Illarionov, told reporters Tuesday that Russia would not ratify it because it would restrict the country's growth. Illarionov is known as an outspoken maverick within the Kremlin who often takes his internal fights public and has long campaigned against Kyoto without killing it. His statements on policy do not always reflect the final positions taken by the Russian government.

Putin has offered conflicting statements on the Kyoto accord. Addressing a Moscow conference on climate change in September, he said Russia "stands for the quickest possible ratification" of Kyoto but then said there were still "difficult and unclear problems." He joked that global warming might be good for frigid Russia.

Supporters of the treaty still believe Putin will embrace the accord and send it to parliament next year. "I am nearly convinced that Russia will sign on," Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien told reporters in Ottawa on Tuesday, according to news accounts. When he met Putin, Chretien said, "I asked him and he said he had the intention of signing."


December 4, 2003  New York Times
NEWS ANALYSIS

Into Thin Air: Kyoto Accord May Not Die (or Matter)

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Since it was negotiated in Japan in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol, the first treaty that would require countries to curb emissions linked to global warming, has lingered in an indeterminate state, between enactment and outright rejection.

On Tuesday its prospects were dealt what may have been a fatal blow when a top Russian official said his country would not ratify it. But some experts on climate and diplomacy say that the fate of the Kyoto treaty itself is rapidly becoming less important than the longer-term processes it set in motion.

Even without approval by the United States and Russia — first and fourth on lists of the world's largest emitters of heat-trapping "greenhouse" gases — the treaty has already changed the world in small but significant ways that will be hard to reverse, these experts say.

From Europe to Japan and the United States, just the prospect of the treaty has resulted in legislation and new government and industry policies curbing emissions.

The treaty's future impact is limited by deep flaws, many experts say, including its lack of any emissions limits on China and other big developing countries and its short time frame, with terms extending only to 2012. As a result, they add, new approaches must be developed now if atmospheric levels of the gases are to be stabilized.

The protocol has been approved by 120 countries but was rejected by President Bush in 2001. Without the United States, the only way to reach the threshold for enactment under the treaty's terms was with Russian participation. If enacted, it would give industrialized countries until 2012 to reduce their combined emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases more than 5 percent below 1990 levels.

The possibility remains that the statement on Tuesday by the Russian official, Andrei N. Illarionov, the top economic adviser to President Vladimir V. Putin, was just a negotiating ploy, aimed at extracting as many concessions as possible from the European Union and Japan, the treaty's main supporters.

On Wednesday a lower-level official, Mukhamed M. Tsikanov, a deputy economics minister, sounded a note of hope for the treaty, declaring, "There are no decisions about ratification apart from the fact that we are moving toward ratification." Mr. Putin, meanwhile, remained silent.

Regardless of which way Russia steps, the process of moving the world toward limiting releases of the gases after more than a century of relentless increases has clearly begun, said David B. Sandalow, a guest scholar at the Brookings Institution and an assistant secretary of state during the Clinton administration who worked on the treaty.

"The standard of success isn't whether the first treaty out of the box sails through," he said. "The standard is whether this puts the world on a path to solving a long-term problem. Other multilateral regimes dealing with huge complex problems, like the World Trade Organization, have taken 45 or 50 years to get established."

Mr. Sandalow and other experts noted that the European Union had already passed a law requiring a cap and credit-trading system for the gases starting in 2005. It will follow the pattern laid out in Kyoto no matter what happens to the treaty.

Even in the United States, where Mr. Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress strongly oppose the treaty, legislation that would require milder restrictions on emissions than those in the Kyoto treaty has gained some momentum.

Opponents of the treaty acknowledge that it has already made a difference, though they say it is a harmful one.

"Kyoto is dead and has been dead, but that doesn't mean that it hasn't done some real damage and won't continue to do some real damage," said Myron Ebell, a climate policy analyst for the Competitive Enterprise Institute, an industry-backed group that opposes regulatory solutions to environmental problems.

"If global warming turns out to be a problem, which I doubt, it won't be solved by making ourselves poorer through energy rationing," he said. "It will be solved through building resiliency and capability into society and through long-term technological innovation and transformation."

Critics of that view say the one feature of the Kyoto treaty that cannot be jettisoned is a ceiling on emissions. Without limits, they say, there will be no incentive for industry to innovate and find the cheapest, most effective ways to limit the human impact on the atmosphere, said David D. Doniger, the climate policy director of the Natural Resources Defense Council, a private environmental group.

"If the United States had invented the catalytic converter but not passed clean air laws," he said, "it would still be sitting on a shelf and we'd still be choking in smog."



December 11, 2003

White House Attacked for Letting States Lead on Climate

By ANDREW C. REVKIN and JENNIFER 8. LEE

Several times at the talks now going on in Milan over a global warming treaty, Bush administration officials have portrayed states' actions to curb heat-trapping gases as evidence of American resolve.

But in this country, officials in many of those same states are strongly criticizing the administration's statements, saying their efforts are no substitute for federal action.

The focus of the criticism is a speech in Milan last Thursday by Dr. Harlan L. Watson, the administration's chief climate negotiator. Listing a variety of initiatives begun by states and communities, he said they were like ``laboratories where new and creative ideas and methods can be applied and shared with others and inform federal policy - a truly bottom-up approach to addressing global climate change.''

But in Washington State, Gov. Gary Locke, a Democrat, said the administration was using state initiatives as cover for its own inaction.

``The states are taking action for one simple reason - because the federal government is not,'' Mr. Locke said. ``For the White House to say it is looking for leadership from the states is just an excuse to delay and procrastinate. We are limited in what the states can do. We need a national policy to address global warming.''

Administration officials and some industry groups say that Mr. Watson had it just right - that having the states take the lead is in the best federalist tradition.

Still, even some groups often critical of environmental regulations said the speech would cause trouble for the administration at home.

``It's not surprising that the administration, when it goes in front of an international body like this, is going to brag about all the initiatives undertaken on global warming at the state level,'' said Jerry Taylor, director of natural resources studies for the libertarian Cato Institute. ``What's the alternative? To go and say we're taking no significant steps and don't intend to in the near future?''

The text of the speech is online at www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rm/2003/26894.htm.

Some Republican governors are distancing themselves from the administration's Milan position without directly criticizing it.

``They have not yet taken climate change on as a real issue and developed policies,'' a senior aide to one such governor, George E. Pataki of New York, said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. ``We are going to keep pushing them.''

Mr. Pataki has led an effort to institute a 2005 regional cap for heat-trapping emissions for states from Maryland to Maine, and is pursuing New York legislation similar to California's new law requiring curbs in such emissions from cars. Mr. Pataki also supports a federal limit on emissions of carbon dioxide, the dominant heat-trapping gas, from power plants as part of a broader cleanup of the plants.

The Bush administration opposes mandatory limits on the gases and state efforts to curtail such emissions from cars. None of Mr. Pataki's proposals involving mandatory curbs were among the projects described by Dr. Watson, who focused on voluntary plans like inventories of the gases.

Erin M. Crotty, Mr. Pataki's environment commissioner, declined yesterday to discuss the Bush administration's position. ``I'll just say from our perspective New York will continue to be a leader,'' she said.

The Milan meeting, which ends Friday, is intended to gauge countries' progress under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, and to hash out details of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an amendment to the original pact requiring cuts in gas emissions by industrialized countries.

The 1992 treaty calls for voluntary action to avoid ``dangerous'' human interference with the climate. President Bush has said he intends to adhere to that treaty, but has rejected the Kyoto pact because it does not apply to China and other developing countries and because he says it could hurt the nation's economy. Last week, Russia also indicated that it would reject the treaty.

The American delegation in Milan has faced withering criticism throughout the meeting. for its position on the Kyoto treaty, and American officials said that Dr. Watson's comments were intended to illustrate that the country was doing things now to deal with warming.

``We're continually getting criticized that we're not doing anything practically at any level except pie-in-the-sky far-out research stuff which won't have any near-term impact,'' an American representative at the meeting said.

In a telephone interview, Dr. Watson said his statement was meant to reflect that ``there is a broad effort going on in the United States on many levels to address global climate change.''

Dr. Watson, a physicist, heads a National Security Council committee on climate policy and has participated in international climate talks for more than a decade.

Among domestic climate initiatives described by Mr. Watson in Milan were programs in 13 states requiring utilities to produce increasing amounts of power using nonpolluting sources like the wind and sun. President Bush signed one such program into law as governor of Texas.

But yesterday, environmental groups pointed out that the administration had successfully sought to exclude similar federal standards from its energy bill, which fell short of passage last month.

Many officials and private groups working on climate policy argue that scattered state and local actions are not an effective way to deal with gases, like carbon dioxide, that flow every time a fossil fuel is burned, stay aloft for up to a century, and drift throughout the atmosphere. A dozen states and three cities recently filed suit against the administration in an effort to compel it to regulate greenhouse gases.

``Nobody wants a situation where there are 50 different states dealing with climate on their own,'' said Joel Levin, the vice president for business development of the California Climate Action Registry. This nonprofit group, created under state legislation, enlists companies to tally and register their emissions of greenhouse gases, a prelude to cutting emissions and getting credit for the change.



December 17, 2003

Hot Spot in 2003? The Earth, U.N. Says

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

GENEVA, Dec. 16 (AP) — The year 2003, marked by a sweltering summer and drought across large swaths of the planet, was the third hottest in nearly 150 years, the United Nations weather agency said Tuesday.

The World Meteorological Organization estimated the average surface temperature for the year to be 0.81 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the normal 25.2 degrees — a number skewed toward the low side because it includes polar regions.

The agency said warmer weather could not be attributed to any single cause but was part of a trend that global warming was likely to prolong.

The agency, which collects data worldwide, said the three hottest years since accurate records began to be kept in 1861 had all been in the last six years.

The hottest was 1998, when the average temperature was up 0.99 degrees.

"The rhythm of temperature increases is accelerating," said the agency's deputy secretary general, Michel Jarraud.